Back in 2018 we wrote a short article discussing research on how experience affects your chances of getting caught and possibly killed by an avalanche. Not as much as you might hope, it would seem. The extra experience doesn't counter the increased risk of pushing into more dangerous terrain over many seasons. It helps to explain why knowledgeable backcountry travellers get caught out every winter.
Chamonix based avalanche educator Mike Austin points out that 14% of French avalanche deaths over a 20 year period involved mountain guides, "ski guides and pro skiers who see themselves making reasonable choices in their terrain selection run the risk of placing themselves into something altogether more dangerous by repeating their exposure, year on year". Or as Danny Ocean puts it, "play long enough with the same stakes and the house always takes you".
Austin claims that to win the avalanche game, we have to change the stakes because even small changes make a big difference in the long term. Every time we ski a slope it is like a bet in poker and you have to ask yourself
One the problems facing experienced skiers is they use their experience to argue they are doing the right thing. That they hold a flush and not a pair of deuces. Austin instead proposes using the Poker Short Stack strategy. This is a technique used by poker players who are low on chips, any wrong move in a bet can wipe them out and it's game over, like a skier in avalanche country he has to know when to fold and walk away from the game. Choosing not to play a weak hand, when we don't have good answers to the above bullet points, is the best tool in avalanche country.
So when should be walk away from the table?
You need to step back when the win isn't clear and not find some reason to continue on your route no matter how close the goal. Time to shift to less dangerous terrain options or even a bit of piste skiing. The mountains will still be there tomorrow, will you?
Further Information: The Avalanche Review, 40.1 https://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/tar