New research published in Nature (Lee et al. 2025) suggests that the weakening of the North Atlantic conveyor will not product the bumper winters that many ski enthusiasts had expected. The research looks at the post 2065 time frame and compares it with the climate from 1980 to 2014. The study suggest that the conveyor will not weaken substantially before that date.
A weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) produces a pronounced “warm tropics – cold subpolar” North Atlantic sea‐surface‐temperature (SST) pattern that amplifies the meridional temperature gradient across Eurasia. This, in turn, increases daily winter temperature variability (i.e. larger swings between unusually cold and unusually mild days) across the mid‐latitude belt, including Western Europe where the Alps are located.
The implications for skiing are greater temperature swings. Winters will not just be warmer on average, they’ll fluctuate more. Periods of unusually mild weather will be punctuated by sharper cold snaps. The snowpack will see deeper freeze-thaw cycles. It is a trend we are already seeing with powder rapidly turning into crust then spring snow.
The weakening of the AMOC will produce some cooling but it will be overwhelmed by a generally warming climate under a high emission scenario with alpine winter temperatures warming by 2 to 4°C by late century. Heavy and extreme snowfall events will decline by 39% at 1800 m altitude although there will be more snowfall above 3000 m. Slopes below 2000 m. can expect less heavy snowfall and more winter thaws. Low altitude resorts have experienced these conditions over the last three winter seasons. Frequently only able to operate for a few days at a time before the snow melts.
2065 is still 40 years in the future. In the near term alpine temperatures are predicted to rise 1.5 to 2 °C by 2050 compared to late twentieth-century baselines. Natural snow reliability levels (i.e. elevation above which you get ≥ 70 % of days with > 20 cm snow cover) are projected to rise by 100 to 250 m in the northern Alps and 200 to 400 m in the southern Alps by 2050 (relative to the period 1986 - 2005). Even with snowmaking a natural snow reliability level of 90% will see similar increases.