Another day, another avalanche alert.
Météo-France has warned of a HIGH avalanche risk for Tuesday 3 February, affecting all mountain ranges in the Southern Alps as well as the Oisans and Grandes Rousses massifs in the Northern Alps. Conditions point to an exceptionally high avalanche danger, representing a maximum risk for all mountain users.
The snow-pack is currently extremely unstable across many slopes. New snowfall, both ongoing and forecast, is settling on a very poorly consolidated base made up of several weak layers that are highly reactive. This situation greatly increases the likelihood of avalanches and makes the snow-pack particularly sensitive to even small additional loads.
Avalanche slabs are expected to be very easy to trigger, sometimes remotely, and in some cases even within forested areas. A skier may activate weak layers from thinner or wind-scoured sections of terrain, such as the edges of couloirs, or indirectly through a cascading release triggered by a recently formed hard slab. In areas where the wind has not been strong enough to clearly shape the snow surface, these dangerous slabs may be especially difficult to identify. Fracture lines can be wide, with avalanches capable of releasing the entire layer of recent snowfall and, in some places, almost the full depth of the existing snow-pack.
On Monday afternoon, light and scattered rainfall affected mountains in the Massif Central before a weather disturbance arrived from the west in the evening. This system caused the rain–snow limit to drop to between 800 and 1,000 metres and brought unstable precipitation, locally accompanied by thunderstorms. Rainfall intensities reached up to 7 to 8 millimetres per hour overnight. Wet snow fell above 800 to 1,000 metres during the second half of the night, while strong south-westerly winds produced gusts exceeding 80 kilometres per hour on exposed ridges.
Snowfall totals observed include 30 to 40 centimetres in the Monts du Cantal and around 50 centimetres in the Sancy massif, with snow conditions described as crusted and/or wet. Over a 24-hour period, rainfall accumulations of 30 to 40 millimetres are expected, along with additional snowfall ranging from a few centimetres at lower elevations to up to 20 centimetres on the highest terrain.
These heavy rains falling onto an existing snowpack are likely to trigger wet snow avalanches, particularly in the Lioran and Sancy massifs, further compounding the already critical avalanche situation.
Under these conditions, choosing to turn back or abandon an outing is a responsible decision. Adapting itineraries, remaining on secured and marked pistes, or postponing mountain activities altogether can save lives. Slopes steeper than 30 degrees, as well as areas exposed to overhead steep terrain, should be strictly avoided. The mountains will still be there, and safer conditions will return.