Well it is not exactly stop press news that the French Alps start the month with poor to very poor snow cover except on the border regions with Italy. The Pre-Alps of the Chartreuse, Bauges and Vercors are largely unskiable at the moment. Conditions in the Southern Alps and Pyrenees are a bit better and there is snow on Corsica.
Looking in more detail at January for the Northern Alps. The first five days of the month started cold but from the 6th through to the 20th were way above average. The weather station at Bourg St Maurice recorded 5 days in the middle of the month of temperatures above 10C, at the same time snow was rare with falls on the 6th, 9th, 11th and 12th, finishing the month with just 40% of normal precipitation. The fresh snow on the 9th/11th contributed to a major avalanche incident in which four people were killed at Val d’Isere. Sunshine, at least at valley level, was just above average. There was slightly more precipitation to the west of the range, around 60%, but this fell as rain to high altitudes.
Snow in the Vercors, 2011 is in orange at the bottom
Temperatures in the Pyrenees were also well above average from the 6th through to the 20th and the month was extremely dry to the 26th with virtually no snowfall. Then there was a months worth of precipitation in a couple of days, bringing 70cm of new snow to the Luchon area in the central Pyrenees although there was less snow elsewhere. In the east precipitation was 35% of average.
In Corsica temperatures were about average for January, again with fresh snow hitting the island in the last week of January causing widespread traffic problems as well as cutting power to mountain villages. There was a similar picture in the Southern Alps with fresh snow in the middle and end of the month and about average temperatures. The 30-40cm of fresh on the 29th resulted in an avalanche fatality near the col d’Agnel.
Currently in Scotland we have winds in excess of 120mph on the mountains and 80 to 100 at sea level with heavy snow on a freeze thaw cycle on the mountains giving an extremely high avalanche risk. Some of it will surely head your way if the High pressure moves. We have also had a dearth of snow for the last 3 weeks with above average temps and spring like conditions some days. Nothing spring like today and if I keep the roof on my house I will be happy.
Thanks for the hint.
Management has decided that we’re coming to Savoie soon regardless of snow depth, so I’m already thinking of some tours near the frontier, like toward the Haute Maurienne (since that’s where the A43 motorway goes).
Also counting on some local hints (and trail-breaking) to protected stashes closer in the Belledonne.
davidof -
Chartreuse, Bauges and Vercors are largely unskiable at the moment.
You mean unskiable in the sense of hors piste.
The groomed cross-country ski trails at La Feclaz (1350m elevation) are still holding on - [ webcam ]
Still no sign of signif precip in the 10-day GFSx projection.
That was a helpful report—educational about future underlying layers—but mainly encouraging, even sunny.
I like your strategy of using lower-altitude pistes to access the higher-altitude ungroomed snow. I still haven’t been skiing at Sept Laux (except once a surprise view of the top of a lift after hiking up the Cime de la Jasse).
Ken
P.S. Big snow year around New York City. Jonathan, originally from the Peak district, currently of Sweden, visiting on a business trip—so Sharon and I found an old extra pair os skis and took him out skiing (he brought his own boots):
Manhattan ski tour - photo slideshow
Take care touring, make sure you have ski crampons and crampons with you as there are a lot of falls at the moment. Two people were killed in the Beaufortain after losing their footing and sliding over cliffs. A soldier broke an arm in the couloir de Pas de Pin in the Belledonne yesterday.
In the Haute Savoie at the moment the conditions are so much better than they were 2 weeks ago, possibly due to the higher temperatures. Not great but perhaps I’m just getting used to it. Back country is ok but when in resort (Flaine) they have done a superb job on the pistes - could never have imagined this 10 years ago.
Not feeling too well today so just a short tour above Olympic The snow is hard in the morning and on shaded slopes (SW round to NE). You wouldn’t want to fall hard on it. Take extreme care here and elsewhere on paths, tracks etc where meltwater or the surface of the snow has melted and refrozen into ice.
Below 1800m the off piste is getting a bit sketchy. You can find flattish valleys that have enough snow to ski down to 1400m but the second you get a bit of slope and sun the snow melts off in places. There are quite a few rocks, patches of grass and tree roots appearing.
The facetted snow on WNW to NE slopes has been created over the last month by the steep temperature gradient in the snow pack (0 degrees at ground level, -10 / -20C during the night with just 30-50cm of snow depth at 2250 meters). It miracle because it can eat through a layer of hard snow leaving something akin to powder (the American’s call it loud powder due to the noise your skis make). This can be a weak layer if there is fresh consolidate snow settlse on top.
However three major factors are in play and will mitigate the risk, or make it more complicated:-
1) we need some fresh snow
2) if it rains this will consolidate this layer, this is not impossible, we’ve already had rain to 2400/2500 meters which created the problems earlier in the season with stable snow to this level and dangerous conditions above
3) it is the 6th of February… within a month we will be into spring below 2500m and this layer which will mitigate the risks (melt water, freeze thaw cycle on the layers above etc).
Very interesting six month forecasts from TV Mountain. The first one, from November, seems reasonably accurate in its prediction of an early-season dump followed by high pressure in control. As a paraglider pilot, its assurance of a dry April was reassuring. However, TV mountain’s latest six month forecast is significantly different. Does anyone know how TV Mountain comes up with its long-term forecasts? At first I thought it was skill and science, but now having compared their forecasts for the rest of the year I think it might be wild guessing in the hope of getting lucky.
You are thinking they are like a stopped clock, bound to get it right at least twice a day? As some people have said: la Nina year, often dry but cold in the Western Alps so not a hard forecast to make in general terms.
You are thinking they are like a stopped clock, bound to get it right at least twice a day? As some people have said: la Nina year, often dry but cold in the Western Alps so not a hard forecast to make in general terms.
Yeah, but it hasn’t been dry but cold, it’s been dry and warm.
Yeah, but it hasn’t been dry but cold, it’s been dry and warm.
No, it’s been dry and cold. It’s been warm the last week or so with the odd day before that but mostly it’s been bl00dy cold. That’s particularly, and very, very evidently, true for ski stations that have been running cannons and through very careful management been able to keep pistes open.
About 10cm in the Northern Alps above 1400m, accompanied by strong winds from the S/SE in some areas. The regions bordering with Italy may see another 5-10cm over the next 12 hours. The snow should continue in the Southern Alps and North Italy tomorrow. Maybe another 20-30cm in North Italy but very little in the Northern French Alps.
So total new snow will be about 5-15cm in the Northern Alps.
20-30cm in the Hautes-Alpes, maybe 40cm on the border with Italy
30-50cm in the Mercantour and surrounding areas, maybe 60cm locally - the avalanche risk is Considerable in the Southern Alps at the moment.
The Pyrenees has seen 5-25cm of new snow from 1200 meters but conditions remain poor.
There is of fresh snow 15-30cm on Corsica but accompanied by very strong winds.
