With fresh snow already falling on the alps - not something altogether unusual for the early autumn we wondered what next winter has in store. The Peasants say an unsettled but average autumn.

More scientifically la Meteo is predicting a cold, but dry and sunny start to winter followed by a wet but warmish January with a real winter hitting in February with lots of snowfall and cold temperatures.

http://www.lameteo.org/saison/saison4.html

Meteo Paris are more measured, saying January will be warm across Russia and Scandinavia which will limit the stocks of cold air that can travel south to bring us snow. No-one is predicting a repeat of the very poor 2007 ski season in Europe but neither are they forecasting bumper snow like in 2005 and 2006.

How it was in 2005 and 2004:

http://pistehors.com/news/ski/comments/first-tracks-or-the-snow-must-go-on/ - Oct 2005

http://pistehors.com/news/ski/comments/a-taste-of-winter/ - Oct 2004

Makes me wonder how accurate those medium-term predictions turned out to be the last few years…

How do you think the March/Very early April will do?

I’m guessing cold becuase after the feburary and the snow it should keep. I’m going to Zermatt in March/April 2008 so pray for snow!

wimdes - 30 September 2007 09:21 PM

Makes me wonder how accurate those medium-term predictions turned out to be the last few years…

We’ll check back on this prediction at the end of the season. I notice weather forecasters never leave old forecasts up on their websites though

gebstar - 06 October 2007 09:43 PM

How do you think the March/Very early April will do?


I’m guessing cold becuase after the feburary and the snow it should keep. I’m going to Zermatt in March/April 2008 so pray for snow!

The thing to remember is that although it starts getting warmer from mid-March the weather is usually more unsettled which means snow above 1500 meters. Normally April is one of the better months for fresh snowfall. Last April was too hot but the first couple of weeks were great and the spring skiing in the 2nd half was acceptable.

So you think this year will be better?

gebstar - 09 October 2007 05:36 PM

So you think this year will be better?

Last year was exceptional[1] so I certainly hope this year will be better. So far autumn in the Alps is much more normal - some early snow, colder and more unsettled rather than last autumn’s Indian summer.

[1]http://pistehors.com/news/ski/comments/0741-retrospective-on-the-2006-2007-ski-season/

Here is a link to a summary from the French Weather Service

http://www.meteofrance.com/pub-adm/display/000/001/975/19750.pdf

The only prediction for both rainfall and temperatures comes from the European Medium Range Service which says a warmer and drier autumn for France (although there is no prediction for the alps). If true that would imply a late start to the season with glaciers perhaps poorly covered. Although the late September snow is still present above 3000 meters. Some guys on SkiTour.fr climbed and skied the Grand Paradis on Sunday

http://www.skitour.fr/sorties/grand-paradis,7647.html#sortie

and reported good conditions on the Glacier (crevasses bridged, spring snow).

Here are some predictions from the NOAA website: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/

It looks like they are predicting dry weather over northern Italy and until the end February. With this breaking over to the frontier ranges of Franc and southern french alps. Wetter weather is predicted to the north of the Alps, Jura etc. A very dry March is predicted overall.

November and December are looking cold with January to March above average temperatures.

So looks like the ski season will start late - say December, be better in the north, Haute-Savoie, with poor snow at low to mid-mountain altitudes.

Good early season snow is reported in the eastern Pyrenean range. Above 1900m it is said to be the best autumn conditions since 2003. Some northern slopes have had snow cover for the last month - a good base and maybe good avalanche conditions as the thin snowpack turns to facets. A point to reflect on later in the winter.

looks like nobody predicted the big snow Austria has got

gregh - 12 November 2007 04:41 PM

looks like nobody predicted the big snow Austria has got

No! but are you unhappy? Best Swiss snow in November for 50 years I read today in the Geneva paper with around 1m in the Grissons. Looking out of the office window the Jura almost looks skiable today… some folks are cross-country skiing up there today, although that needs less snow. Here is the Monts Jura webcam

We are even looking at more snow for France towards the middle part of the week with coverage above 1000 meters. Should be enough to ski on this weekend.

davidof - 12 November 2007 04:48 PM

gregh - 12 November 2007 04:41 PM

looks like nobody predicted the big snow Austria has got

No! but are you unhappy?

I’m chuffed, just find it interesting to look back on so many expert opinions :D

Predictions from TV Mountain

December.
Air stream from the west bringin rain and a cold snap. Winter continues for a time even if the weather is unsettled. Some nice sunny powder days.

January 2008
The air moves to the south-west. Rain to 2000 meters with spring like conditions. It is very warm and snow can only be found at altitude.

February 2008
Hot hot tot. High pressure and mild air. End of skiing in mid-altitudes. Sun and terrace for everyone.

March
It’s summer - hot and sunny.

Avril 2008
Hot and sunny

Mai 2008
Sunny and thundery in the mountains

Juin 2008
Colder with rain and storms

http://www.tvmountain.com/fr/prevision6mois.asp

This sounds like a wind-up, or at least the author hopes he is wrong. I certainly hope he is.

Yann Giezendanner forecaster for Météo France in Chamonix is predicting a wet and warming January. La Meteo said that back in September and so far it seems they are right. Meteo France are making few predictions for the 3 months of January to March saying the models are too uncertain. However a number of predictions say warmer than average.

http://www.meteofrance.com/pub-adm/display/000/002/120/21200.pdf

Kairn have just interviewed Yann where he gives fuller predictions for the Haute-Savoie based on his own models.

Janvier 2008
An airstream from the south to south west will bring oceanic weather to the Alps. Lots of snow above 2000 meters with some heavy rain at valley level. Spring weather between the storms.

February 2008
Disturbed weather with winds from the north-west. Some heavy snow at low altitude but the month will be just a bit cold with lots of sunshine.

March 2008
Spring with some weak weather patterns from the west and mild air.

April 2008
Weather patterns from teh west then north west. Rain and storms with some sunny and very warm weather.

May 2008
Very hot and sunny like summer. Thunderstorms.

June 2008
Westerly winds, not too wet but fairly sunny with fresh to cold air in the mountains.

July 2008
Wet and fresh.

http://www.kairn.com/news_nature_59716.html