On Tuesday we are planning to ski to the Refuge du Grand Plan in Les Avals valley.  I hear that 40cm of snow are forecast so will this pose a higher avalanche risk?  We plan to do the ski about 3pm in the afternoon.

I don’t think the Avals valley is too avalanche prone… although the name “avals” - below - may implies avalanche. Beware of remote triggering if you are passing under big slopes with this amount of snow. I would watch the weather closely though over the next few days. No sign of the 30cm forecast for today in the Chartreuse.

Hopefully someone else can post advice.

The short answer is yes. (40cm of fresh = higher avalanche risk)

The long answer is also yes…

Which way are you going in? Off the lifts the initial traverse under the Roc Merlet and up to the shoulder can be subject to wind-loading and needs respect (have been a few incidents here over the years).

Similarly if you are skinning up Les Avals from Granges/Belveder - its not called Les Avals for nothing… both sides of the valley have big slopes which can & do slide, Lionel the guardian of the refuge was caught near the Grande Val a couple of years ago and lost his avalanche dog to the slide :-(

Thanks, Simon, nice to get the view from an expert on the ground.

Here was some discussion last season following a closure by the mayor

http://pistehors.com/news/forums/viewthread/1221/

and the avalanche that killed the Guardian’s dog back in 2009

http://pistehors.com/news/forums/viewthread/417/

I don’t know what the local conditions are like in that area, but globally it has been snowing heavily with up to 1m in places, and it’s still snowing (Monday 11 am). The global avalanche risk is 4-5 in most places, all aspects and altitudes.
The 48 hours after a snowfall are the most dangerous, moreover the history of the last week is not promising: there was a very strong northerly wind which went round to the east and then the south as the snow began and is now westerly! i.e. there will have been a build-up of windslab on all aspects. Plus the new snow is falling on a firm frozen base, with some hoar formation in places, so we can expect large natural purges of both powder and slab in the next 2 days.
Personally I’m glad I’m snug at home , not stuck in a refuge playing French Scrabble! A good time to mess around in resort, or on easy ground in the trees, I think.
It’s worth checking skitour.fr daily - the reports of outings (and significantly, the lack of them at times) can be very informative, plus there is a good link, on the panel on the left, into the Avalanche Bulletin; click on department required.

Thank you so much everyone for your detailed and informative advice.  I have so much to learn.  We have decided not to go and since then I heard that there has been a big avalanche in the Avals valley so not going was the right decision.  Hopefully we will get there before the end of the season.

I agree with what Simon has said above.  One of the most avalanche prone sections is the point of highest traffic - the track on the way out.  There is a nasty wee avalanche path that regularly crosses the track, where people who have finished their descent are off skis and walking out.  People also reach this point by snowshoeing or walking up from Granges and often appear oblivious to the danger.  I have witnessed two incidents in the past few years where people have been swept down to the river below by an avalanche from above.
Another good suggestion for getting a good assessment of conditions in Les Avals is to call the guardian at the Grand Plan.