Well the predictions for the spring were a bit off so lets see how we can do for 2008-2009. Meteo Chamonix has made the following predictions for the autumn:

September 2008
The unsettled weather of August (good, should fill up the glaciers and provide some high altitude skiing) continues with an airstream from the south-west. It will be cold with a lot of precipitation in the Alps.

October 2008
Westerlies in the north of Europe will bring mainly sunny weather for much of the month but it will be cold and unsettled with the first snows at the end of October.

November 2008
High pressure bring cold but dry weather.

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So it sounds as if we might get our first skiing in for the end of October with a wait until December for the season to really kick off. Watch this space.

"The unsettled weather of August”. Again? August has been a dissapointed since the last canicule! Where do you get these depressing predictions for the summer?

Well they got the last six months wrong so let’s see. I’m just trying to keep tabs on the long term predictions to see if they have any basis in reality. It is very easy to make a prediction, remove it from the website, or edit it, then say “hey we were right”.

Meteo France have commented on the end of the la Niña episode. They say the models for June-August predict above average temperatures with no forecast for rainfall.

http://www.meteofrance.com/pub-adm/display/000/002/335/23350.pdf

Thanks for the info. The Met Office European predictions can be found here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/summer2008/index.html

Our friends at Kairn have posted the following predictions

http://www.kairn.com/news_nature_64810.html

September 2008

The westerlies that have blown all summer will continue although weather systems will be fairly infrequent giving some nice late summer days. However the weather fronts will be disturbed with some big thunderstorms.

October 2008
Change in the atmospherique airstreams. Les weather fronts but cold as they pass through will bring snow to quite low altitudes. Return to a stable high pressure with cold mornings but warm afternoons.

November 2008
Alternating between disturbed cold north easterly bringing some snown and southerly “foehn” winds. There will be a little snow and cold but just for short periods down to valley levels.

December 2008
Installation of a strong high pressure system over the Atlantic. Stable weather. Dry and warm for long periods. Inversion layer in the valleys. Mountains will be warm and sunny, valleys cold and foggy.

January 2009
The high pressure will continue with winds dominating from the south. Stable and warm weather in the mountains, grey in the valley. A oceanic weather front will bring some snow.

February 2009
Continuing high pressure, sunny warm weather, with only a small amount of snow during the month.

Well it is very warm for mid october, around 23-24C in the afternoon in the French Alps. Not a record but certainly an Indian summer after the cold snap a couple of weeks ago. Mornings are not especially cold but there is a lot of fog in the valley bottoms.

Here is the GFS for next wednesday (27 October 2008). The french forecasters are predicting snow down to 500 meters, how much we don’t know yet. Our guy in the Jura says just a few cm at that level and not much more higher up. The GFS gives us hope for something skiable.

There was a bit of snow yesterday but in the end it was much too warm with the zero isotherm around 3000 meters. The glacier at les Deux Alpes has around 5cm but not much to get excited about.