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Winter predictions 2011
Posted: 09 August 2010 11:13 PM  
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With some snow on the mountains opposite and a chill in the air some people are starting to talk about next season. I always feel that unseasonal snowfall is a bad omen though. Personally I’m not expecting to get the skis out before November at the earliest although TV Mountain’s 6 month forecast is for a cold but dryish start to winter :-(

I took these photos from the back garden

Image1.jpg
Glacier du Freydane/Belledonne range

It is rare to see snow still in the couloirs of the Rocher de l’Homme. Great touring spot.

Image2.jpg
Rocher de l’Homme

Here is the TV Mountain long range forecast:-

http://www.tvmountain.com/index.php/meteo-6-mois/307-buletin-du-10810

October 2010
Sunny and stable.

November 2010
continuing the dry and sunny weather with cold air arriving from the east bringing some snow.

D├ęcember 2010
Dry and cold in the mountains despite a couple of weather systems bringing snow

January 2011
Dry with little snow, below average temperatures, a lot of sun in the mountains.

 
 
Posted: 11 August 2010 02:58 AM   [ # 1 ]  
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That snow still remaining in the Belledonne does seem remarkable to me.

The hints I’ve seen from the forecast models are that the simulation-distributions for early winter are roughly in the range of long-term normal in both temperature + precipitation.

I’m still just trying to get thru the heat of summer.

Ken

 
 
Posted: 15 August 2010 08:09 PM   [ # 2 ]  
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Here in BC, Canada the long term forecast includes the return of La Nina. That generally bodes well for as will cooler than normal temps. Last years El Nino was disastrous for our heliskiing industry.

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John
Northern Escape Heli-Skiing
<http://www.neheliski.com>

 
 
Posted: 17 October 2010 01:12 PM   [ # 3 ]  
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I think la Nina means less good winters in Europe though?

There was some snow down to 1300 meters on the Belledonne overnight. Can’t go and look as I have bronchitis at the moment.

This is the TV Mountain forecast

October 2010
Disturbed weather but mild driven by west and southerly airstreams. Lot of rain. Snow at high and mid altitudes.

November 2010
North west air flow bringing a bit of snow to low altitudes but cold air and sun in the mountains

December 2010
Atlantic high bringing cold, dry weather with valley inversions.

January 2011
Similar to December. Cold and dry in the mountains, even warm on south facing slopes. Grey in the valleys.

February 2011
Continuing dry weather. Cold and sunny and getting warmer on southern aspects. Sunnier in the valleys.

March 2011
Warm and sunny.

So after two reasonable seasons that reads “snow drought” to me, with maybe better conditions in the Southern Alps / Pyrenees and close to the border with Italy where you can get some precipitation blown up from depressions that traverse Mediterranean.

[ Edited: 17 October 2010 01:19 PM by davidof]
 
 
Posted: 27 October 2010 01:32 PM   [ # 4 ]  
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Meteo France are agreeing with the cold but dry autumn prediction, although they say the certainty about precipitation is not good (lets hope it is snowier than they say)

http://france.meteofrance.com/content/2010/9/24093-48.pdf

 
 
Posted: 01 November 2010 09:52 AM   [ # 5 ]  
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This is TV Mountain’s latest bulletin (ps I noticed the Savoyard Almanac is out in the shops, will have to check their predictions). They are predicting a pounding for France from mid November then a snow drought with little snow on southern slopes.

November 2010
Warm autumnal weather at the start of the month before a northwesterly air stream installs over France. From that moment, the northern Alps will see weather systems charged with heavy rain and unusually heavy snow at all elevations from the valley floor upwards.

December 2010
An anticyclone positioned over Greenland causes a blockage of the ocean currents. The weather is cold and dry, sunny in the mountains on southerly slopes, cold in the valley. Valleys will be grey cold and wet blocked under an inversion layer.

January 2011
Continuation of the blocked weather situation. Sunny mountain slopes with the inversion layer persisting into the first half of the month

February 2011
The Greenland anticyclone will move over Western Europe with cold, dry sunny weather. The start of spring in the valleys and southern slopes.

March 2011
Disturbed weather systems from the British Isles to Scandinavia. The air is warm over the Alps with some precipitation but over the spring that started in February continues.

April 2011
The high pressure continues over Western Europe: Westerly air flows cause frost in the morning but overall warm and sunny.

http://www.tvmountain.com/index.php/meteo-6-mois/368-bulletin-du-1112010

 
 
Posted: 06 February 2011 06:47 PM   [ # 6 ]  
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Things have turned out pretty much as predicted with a snow drought.

Here are the latest predictions.

February 2011
Some disturbance in the 2nd week of the month bringing snow and then a resumption of the northerly air flow. The weather will cool and dry but sunny. Spring set in rapidly towards the end of the month.

March 2011
End of the Atlantic weather system allowing warm air to invade Western Europe. Maybe some weather systems early in this period but then sunny, mild and springlike.

April 2011
Airstreams from west to south-west: disturbed weather systems in the Alps with frequent thunderstorms at the end of the month. The snowfall will be abundant in mid and high altitudes but very hot between weather systems.

May 2011
Typical May weather, warm, sunny but thunderstorms are frequent late afternoon bringing heavy rain.

June 2011
Continued warm weather, very stormy with heavy rain but also nice summer days.

July 2011
Norther
Hot sunny weather but no heat wave due to northerly air stream.

http://www.tvmountain.com/index.php/meteo-6-mois/412-bulletin-du-10211