According to scary climate scientists temperatures could soar by 7C by 2100. CO2 levels have risen 40% since the Kyoto treaty wasn’t ratified in 1990. Apparently sea level rises of 1 meter, combined with storm surges could have a dramatic effect on property prices!

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5guyYFeHn4H0Pk5unhLBJrpVBBsug

Davidof,
I love your website and read it avidly. But in posting this you aren’t you just catering to the “find the most extreme article quoting the most extreme prediction” camp? Climate models are notoriously imprecise, so if you get enough of them one is bound to show crazy high predictions. Funny how the crazy low ones don’t get much press, isn’t it?
Flooding this week in one town in the UK was said to be a “once in 1000 year event”. 999 towns didn’t have flooding this year. That last part didn’t make the news though.
2009 is so far heading to be the 7th or 8th warmest year on record, not the warmest as you might assume from the more bleating press.
Last year there were articles about European skiing disappearing completely within a few years, and then we had one of the best winters for years.
Even just focussing on CO2, which is undeniably rising fast, today’s story is surely China pledging to cut emissions by 40-45%?
I’d draw attention to your excellent summary of skiing and climate change at http://pistehors.com/backcountry/wiki/Weather/The-Effects-Of-Global-Warming-On-Skiing

I have no opinion about the 7 degrees - and I don’t think someone has a qualified model to date.

What I know is that the Alps are very different from what they were during my childhood, and that the changes have accelerated. Whenever I go mountaineering, I now take fresh information from people on site and don’t even believe maps for glacier - or previously glacier - terrain, as I have found myself in completely different situations, routes or even dead ends in places I thought I knew by heart.

Every time I go mountaineering with my children, I have the heartbreaking impression we don’t leave them the earth that was given to us. While we discuss about a few degrees, high mountains have changed in a drastic manner that I wouldn’t believe could happen in a matter of decades…

ericlodi - 27 November 2009 06:01 PM

Every time I go mountaineering with my children, I have the heartbreaking impression we don’t leave them the earth that was given to us.

Flexibility is the key to enjoying the mountains (and valleys) in the next 10-20 years if warming trends and loss of glaciers for the Alps continue. Flexibility to travel farther to different places (with more snow), flexibility to switch to different activities.

Families with children find it tougher to be flexible.
Ski resort snow-related businesses may find it tougher to be flexible.

Backcountry / randonnee skiers are already very accustomed to being flexible with snow conditions, so the impact on us is not so large for the next 10-20 years. Actually high-altitude ski touring in April + early May has been rather good for the past 3-5 years. Low altitude touring in the northern French Alps isn’t so great even in a good snow year, so the loss of that isn’t so critical to backcountry skiers - (perhaps more of us will learn to use mountain bikes or electric bikes to help access higher-altitude ski tours). And some mid-elevation tours might be safer with little or no glaciers (e.g. Pic de l’Etendard from St Sorlin d’Arves).

Road-bicycle touring in the Alps has been impacted by the loss of glaciers, I feel—because lots of mountains are less pretty in summer and autumn with little or no visible snow. So it makes a big difference to the views if you ride the mountain pass roads in May - June versus August - September. If you ride in late spring (after a decent winter) you see seasonal snow in most of the places where there were glaciers 30 years ago.
Some mountain areas look very spectacular even with no snow (e.g. the Dolomites of NE Italy), but the southern French Alps don’t fare so well.

I’ve made a list of which mountain roads in the Alps still have views of snow in late summer + autumn.

Last week wasn’t very good for snow in the Alps, but Sharon and I bet on spending a few days down south around Marseille and Orange, and had a wonderful time hiking + road-bicycling. The Calanques around Marseille and Cassis were spectacular—and warm enough so we did a little swimming in the sea, but uncrowded and easier access than in summer. Main problem was I didn’t bring enough short-sleeve shirts.
Flexibility is fun.

Ken

Well, the kids are flexible - mountaineering and backcountry skiing - and they don’t seem to bother as much as I do for the changes in the mountains, may be because they haven’t really realized it in their shorter experience, or simply because young heads are more optimistic than aging ones?

One sure thing is that some areas have become more dangerous in summer - may be not in winter - as ice has receded leaving unstable morains and cliffs, and some snow & ice faces are now slides for flying stones.

But… if Gulf Stream changes course, our host Davidof could have his house moving South on the edge of a glacier

For now, snow is falling, so let’s ski it while it’s here!

niall - 26 November 2009 08:26 PM

Davidof,
I love your website and read it avidly. But in posting this you aren’t you just catering to the “find the most extreme article quoting the most extreme prediction” camp?

Yes! But everytime there is some new news it seems to be worse than before.

Have you been following “climategate”?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_e-mail_hacking_incident

It seems like their (University) climate analysis software is a bit of a hack although that doesn’t mean it is wrong.

Climate change viewed by skiers - very much what I said in the previous post… A POW (Protect our Winter) and Teton Gravity Research movie (free download):

http://bit.ly/4YipRg